Forecast Monkey 2.0

I know, you were hoping that you were done with the Forecast Monkey's pitiful screeches. Well too bad!

Late one night, as I was relating the story of the Forecast Monkey's rise and fall over the last few months to some buddies, we decided to try our hand at monkey brain surgery (it's the sort of idea that starts to sound reasonable after you've had a few drinks). Unfortunately, the amount of mind-altering substances in use that night prevents me from recalling exactly what we did to the poor creature, but I know it involved taking apart several home appliances and a few drunken visits to Radio Shack.

The next morning, all of us woke up with a headache (especially the Forecast Monkey - it's a miracle he woke up at all). It was immediately clear that we had a changed monkey. He had always been violent, untrusting, and strangely prophetic, but all of these qualities were dramatically increased. One day recently the sight of me carrying a kitchen knife sent him into a violent seizure, and we noticed a strong correlation between the bloody foam coming from his mouth and the next day's stock charts. That's when we knew we were back in business.

We're going to give the Forecast Monkey a few days rest before he starts up his daily predictions again. Expect to see his new predictions starting April Fools Day here:

http://nakedloon.com/forecast-monkey/

All stats will start fresh from zero, and there will be a small primer on how to actually use the predictions for trading (if flushing your money down the toilet isn't fast enough for you). Any fool who actually follows his predictions deserves the financial ruin they will inevitably receive. Please, stay away.

Done for now

I'm back from my trip, and I have decided to stop posting the Forecast Monkey's predictions for the time being.

We still have a total gain of 17% since we started tracking our progress. That's a big drop from where we peaked with a 66% gain, but if we stop now, we can end this experiment in the black.

The Forecast Monkey's predictive power, which was unbelievably strong at first, seems to have waned significantly, and I would like to do some brain surgery on the poor creature before I post any more of his predictions.

If and when the Forecast Monkey starts predicting again, we will almost certainly start all stats again from zero, and we may very well move to a different web address. If that happens, I will post the new address here.

STAY LONG at 3/6/2009 close

For the 72-hour period beginning 12:50 PM PST, Forecast Monkey says BUY the S&P500 (Continue to hold Ultrabull fund or SSO shares)

I will be out of town for at least a week, so I'm guessing I will not be able to post any predictions until Wednesday the 11th. Starting Monday 3/9/2009, any hypothetical investment dollars will be safely stowed in a money market account.

Here's the latest stats.

	31 wins out of 58 attempts = 53% success rate
	Timespan	Return	Average
	Total	20%	N/A
	2009 YTD	-3.2%	N/A
	20 days	-19.8%	11.8%
	10 days	-14.7%	3.6%
	5 days	-12.0%	1.6%
	1 day	8.29%	0.41%

I'll probably be doing some major brain surgery on the Forecast Monkey soon, at which time we may reset our stats and start afresh.

Again, these predictions are for entertainment purposes only. Please don't make real-life trades based on this silly speculative nonsense.

BUY LONG at 3/5/2009 close

For the 24-hour period beginning 12:50 PM PST, Forecast Monkey says BUY the S&P500 (Sell any other holdings and buy Ultrabull fund or SSO shares).

Alas, due to technical difficulties, I was not able to make a prediction yesterday. For performance purposes, we assume that any hypothetical investors stuck with the last prediction made (sell short), and thus made out like bandits today.

No stats today. Maybe tomorrow.

SELL SHORT at 3/3/2009 close

For the 24-hour period beginning 12:50 PM PST, Forecast Monkey says SELL the S&P500 (Sell any other holdings and buy Ultrabear fund or SDS shares).

Today's prediction was reached by pulling one of the Forecast Monkey's few remaining teeth, and weighing it.

Statistics for the Forecast Monkey's predictions through the last market close:

	30 wins out of 55 attempts = 55% success rate
	Timespan	Return	Average
	Total	18%	N/A
	2009 YTD	-4.9%	N/A
	20 days	-22.7%	14.7%
	10 days	-25.7%	5.0%
	5 days	-7.8%	2.7%
	1 day	-9.26%	0.39%

I beg of you not to use this silly forecast in real-life trading. These predictions are for ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY.

STAY LONG at 3/2/2009 close

For the 24-hour period beginning 12:50 PM PST, Forecast Monkey says BUY the S&P500 (Continue to hold Ultrabull fund or SSO shares).

Today's prediction was reached by dumping a gallon of saline into the Forecast Monkey's IV drip, then tickling him until he had "an accident" and finally measuring the viscosity of his evacuated fluids.

Statistics for the Forecast Monkey's predictions through the last market close:

	30 wins out of 54 attempts = 56% success rate
	Timespan	Return	Average
	Total	30%	N/A
	2009 YTD	4.9%	N/A
	20 days	-18.7%	15.7%
	10 days	-19.7%	5.7%
	5 days	-5.5%	2.9%
	1 day	-4.67%	0.57%

I am pleased to report the Forecast Monkey continues his impressive losing streak, and by today's close, I am hoping he will be in the negative for 2009. We had a long string of disappointments early this year as the Forecast Monkey inexplicably won over and over again, but the Forecast Monkey seems to be finally showing potential as the losing machine we knew he could be.

I beg of you not to use this silly forecast in real-life trading. These predictions are for ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY.

STAY LONG at 2/27/2009 close

For the 72-hour period beginning 12:50 PM PST, Forecast Monkey says BUY the S&P500 (Continue to hold Ultrabull fund or SSO shares).

Today's prediction was reached by using the Forecast Monkey's body cavities for drug smuggling, then weighing the piles of cash that we got for our efforts.

Statistics for the Forecast Monkey's predictions through the last market close:

	30 wins out of 53 attempts = 57% success rate
	Timespan	Return	Average
	Total	36%	N/A
	2009 YTD	10.0%	N/A
	20 days	-9.0%	16.7%
	10 days	-16.1%	6.3%
	5 days	-3.1%	3.1%
	1 day	-3.14%	0.67%

I beg of you not to use this silly forecast in real-life trading. These predictions are for ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY.

STAY LONG at 2/26/2009 close

For the 24-hour period beginning 12:50 PM PST, Forecast Monkey says BUY the S&P500 (Continue to hold Ultrabull fund or SSO shares).

Today's prediction was reached by forcing the Forecast Monkey to perform degrading acts for an immature variety show, and measuring the resulting drop in his self-esteem.

Statistics for the Forecast Monkey's predictions through the last market close:

	30 wins out of 52 attempts = 58% success rate
	Timespan	Return	Average
	Total	40%	N/A
	2009 YTD	13.6%	N/A
	20 days	-12.4%	17.5%
	10 days	-11.9%	6.8%
	5 days	-2.2%	3.2%
	1 day	2.08%	0.75%

I beg of you not to use this silly forecast in real-life trading. These predictions are for ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY.

BUY LONG at 2/25/2009 close

For the 24-hour period beginning 12:50 PM PST, Forecast Monkey says BUY the S&P500 (Sell any other holdings and buy Ultrabull fund or SSO shares).

Today's prediction was reached by recording how much weight Grandma lost after the Forecast Monkey stole her taser and used it on her.

Statistics for the Forecast Monkey's predictions through the last market close:

	29 wins out of 51 attempts = 57% success rate
	Timespan	Return	Average
	Total	37%	N/A
	2009 YTD	11.2%	N/A
	20 days	-16.0%	18.5%
	10 days	-5.2%	7.3%
	5 days	-4.4%	3.3%
	1 day	7.76%	0.72%

I beg of you not to use this silly forecast in real-life trading. These predictions are for ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY.

SELL SHORT at 2/24/2009 close

For the 24-hour period beginning 12:50 PM PST, Forecast Monkey says SELL the S&P500 (Sell any other holdings and buy Ultrabear fund or SDS shares).

Today's prediction was reached by recording how much weight the Forecast Monkey lost after Grandma used her taser on him.

Statistics for the Forecast Monkey's predictions through the last market close:

	28 wins out of 50 attempts = 56% success rate
	Timespan	Return	Average
	Total	28%	N/A
	2009 YTD	3.2%	N/A
	20 days	-23.0%	19.6%
	10 days	-12.3%	7.6%
	5 days	-19.4%	3.5%
	1 day	-6.97%	0.58%

The last few days have been a series of brutal losses, but it appears that today will be a big win for the Forecast Monkey.

I beg of you not to use this silly forecast in real-life trading. These predictions are for ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY.